Nottingham Forest are reportedly being on the verge of making a £13 million mistake.

The potential signing of Joao Carvalho is no doubt exciting for Forest fans. The Benfica midfielder has already made an appearance in the Champions League and 15 appearances for Portugal’s Under-21 side. He clearly has a promising future ahead of him.

Yet there are several reasons why this move is a poor one. While the fee is slightly higher than might be expected, it is the weight of being the club’s record signing by more than doubling the previous record that will prove burdensome. Despite featuring in the Champions League, he made just seven league appearances for Benfica and is clearly still growing as a player.

While hiring and firing managers like they’re going out of fashion, the club has proved sensible in not spending beyond their means for talent on the pitch. Even after the sale of Britt Assombalonga, the club focused on increasing depth rather than gambling it all on a single star. This may have prevented the club having a play-off push last season, but it created a solid foundation which the team can build on.

There is also the question of whether Carvalho is ready to have a team built around him. This expectation combined with adapting to living abroad for the first time will increase the chances of him taking at least a season to adjust at the risk of his development. It may be that he flourishes, but don’t expect it for at least a season.