Football betting is often regarded as a casual hobby, thousands upon thousands of punters will enjoy placing accumulators at weekends with the intention of celebrating and commiserating every goal, red card, penalty and update from Jeff, Kammy and the Soccer Saturday crew.
Often these bets will have no structure, discipline and are so impulsive you will find yourself driving home from the bookmakers not being able to remember which 5 teams you backed to bring home the elusive 3 or 4 figure sum. As the stake is often different from week to week, it allows the advantage to be handed to the bookmakers.
A way in which you can turn the tables around is to keep a consistent system to the way you bet on football matches, seeking value in the competitive markets offered by bookmakers. This means out with the scorecasts and correct score betting (gambling – http://onlineslotsx.com/) and in with the goals and handicaps markets (informed investments), which can be very profitable with the right approach of studying the form and, most importantly, keeping a level stake.
“Why would I keep a level stake? I’ve placed loads of bets and my accumulators often win” I hear you say, well this thought process is usually due to betting psychology, your sub consciousness will almost always overestimate your winnings and underestimate your losses. Think of it this way, how many bets can you remember from last season that lost, the chances are a lot of these bets will go under the radar and will easily be forgotten, it’s your way of justifying your football betting habit to yourself. A way you can change that is to adopt a new set of rules and to consider your bets as an investment, rather than a punt.
The system – Bankroll Management
Start with an amount of money you are comfortable with investing into football betting, lets say £100. This is not the figure you will be investing into 1 bet, but the overall amount of disposable money that you are prepared to allocate to betting throughout the season. This is your ‘bankroll’. In order to practice discipline in our betting we will work on a point based system where our bankroll will always account for 100 points and we will only ever risk 5% of our bankroll at any one time. This approach accounts for the inevitable variance we will occur throughout the season in which upsets will occur and we have to accept the fact that we are likely not to make a return every week. Instead our focus is on making well-informed decisions that, over time, will return a healthy return on investment, our ROI.
I like to allocate the 5% of my bankroll in play in the following structure:
3 point stake on a selection of odds of 4/6 or better
1 point stake on a selection of odds of 4/1 or better
AND either 2 0.5 point stakes on selections of odds of 9/1 or better OR another 1 point stake on a selection of odds of 4/1 or better
You will notice that, using this method, if any of our selections results in a successful bet, we will at least break even on our 5 point investment for the overall gameday or gameweek, depending on how often you would like to bet.
If this seems like an attractive proposition to you then in order to get started I would suggest signing up with Bet Victor or Sky Bet, who I’ve noticed offer the best prices on most markets, most frequently. Sky Bet are also offering a free £5 bet if you place bets to the value of £25 throughout the week for the whole of the 2014/2015 season, which will work out at £150-200 in free bets across a full season! Furthermore, it would be advisable to keep an excel spreadsheet of your selections and to keep a keen eye on the markets and form. You may however be rather busy and would look to follow someone else’s selections, therefore I will be posting selections and tips for each gameweek with reasoning from data in the form of the selections and their opponents. I will also include a running tally of our profit/loss, in points, so it is scalable to know how much profit you could attain with differing bankroll sizes.
Here’s to a successful 2014/2015 season of #FLWBookieBashing!