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Excellent news for Villa fans: There’s an 85.8% chance of this happening in Sunday’s derby



Aston Villa prepare to host their bitter rivals Birmingham City in Sunday’s Second City derby on the back of a run of six consecutive Championship wins, which has taken them to the verge of the automatic promotion places.

However, they will have to be wary of Steve Cotterill’s Blues side, who are enjoying something of a resurgence themselves.

They have put together a run of five games unbeaten over 90 minutes – they were eventually beaten in extra time by Premier League strugglers Huddersfield 4-1 in their FA Cup fourth round replay on Wednesday night.

That form has taken them to 19th in the Championship, four places above the dreaded drop zone and means that they will also be going into Sunday’s crunch clash full of confidence.

However, we’ve run the numbers and maybe that confidence is misplaced. The Predictor gives Birmingham just a 4 per cent chance of winning, while Villa are overwhelming favourites to take all three points, with an 85.8 per cent probability.

The predicted score is 2-0 to the Villa, with the chances of the draw – which is what I’d have my money on if I was a betting man – measuring up at a little over a 10 per cent chance.

Villa fans – what are your predictions? Birmingham fans – can you spring a surprise? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below…